Browsing: oil


Using the Variance Risk Premium to Predict Futures Markets

Jul 15th, 2018 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Energy, Gold, Hard metals, Newly Added, oil, Risk management, Risk Management Strategies & Processes, Risk Metrics and Measurement

A new study of volatility in commodity prices indicates that both the total and the decomposed variance risk premiums of at least certain commodities markets contain information with predictive power. The variance risk premium is the pay-off of the synthetic variance swap contract. Specifically, it’s the difference between the floatingRead More

Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth

Apr 19th, 2018 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Investing in Commodities, Newly Added, oil

The U.S. is withdrawing from a multilateral agreement with Iran that was aimed at dissuading the Iranian regime from further progress toward nuclearization. In the meantime, the U.S. and its allies have bombed Syria in retaliation for that country’s chemical attacks on its people, and a shake-up in the topRead More

Eurekahedge: Greater China Mandates Pay Off for January

Feb 20th, 2018 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Digital currencies, Emerging Alternative Investments, Energy, Gold, Hedge Fund Industry Trends, Hedge Fund Strategies, Hedge Funds, Indexes, Investing in Commodities, Newly Added, oil, Other Topics in A.I., The A.I. Industry

A new Index Flash Update from Eurekahedge says that hedge funds are off to a positive start to 2018. The industry globally gained 2.26% in January. Among developed world mandates, North American hedge funds were up 1.89%, followed by those of Japan and Europe, which gained 1.28% each. Higher numbersRead More

Top 5 Alpha Stories of 2017

Dec 31st, 2017 | Filed under: Business News, Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Finance & Economics, Insolvency, Newly Added, oil, The A.I. Industry

In surveying this year for dramatic alpha-related stories, we have much whence to choose. This was the year in which the Murdoch family announced its intention to sell some of their highest value holdings to Disney. Also, in 2017 the EQT Rice merger (contested, unsuccessfully, by one prominent hedge fundRead More

Dakota Access and the Army Corps of Engineers: An Odd Mistake?

Nov 13th, 2016 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Infrastructure, Newly Added, oil, Operationally Intensive Real Assets

On November 7, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers put out a statement that said that the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) had agreed to halt its controversial ongoing construction in North Dakota. The following day, which happens to have been Election Day, [so non-election news went largely uncovered], the ownersRead More

Venezuela: Thinking of Cromwell and Crude

Oct 13th, 2016 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Emerging markets, Finance & Economics, Newly Added, oil, The Global Economy & Currencies

Hedge funds, among them some of those the unsympathetic call “vultures,” bought into the bonds of the Petróleo de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) early this year. PDVSA is Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, the consequence of nationalization forty years ago. Its fate turns on (a) the vagaries of post-Chavez politics in thatRead More

Investors in Extractive Industries: Practice Your Forced Grin

Sep 15th, 2016 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities: Examples, diamonds, Newly Added, oil

A new book comes to us this year from the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA), a think tank founded in March 2011 “to create a platform for engagement around strategic issues facing South Africa.” Unsurprisingly, this report suffers from the generic weakness of books written by committee—it reads asRead More

The Shale/Fracking Revolution: 1998 to 2011

Aug 23rd, 2016 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Investing in Commodities, Newly Added, oil

A critical revolution in the crude oil and natural gas markets began 18 years ago. Gary Sernovitz, who has given the world his thoughts on this revolution in the new book The Green and the Black, has had some convenient seats whence to observe, most recently as a managing directorRead More

Crude Oil at Mid-Year: IEA Assessment

Jul 17th, 2016 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Newly Added, oil

As this year began, crude oil prices were stuck at their lowest level in twelve years. The world seemed to be bulging with surplus of the stuff. In January, the International Energy Agency estimated that the excess of supply over demand through the first half of the year would beRead More

The Case Against a Bearish Argument on Crude Oil

Jun 2nd, 2016 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Newly Added, oil

  A recent Bloomberg story indicates that in a world  awash in cheap crude oil, traders are now storing the stuff at a loss, at sea, on board vessels in the Straits of Malacca. Further, they are going into debt so they can bear this loss. Citing Morgan Stanley analysts,Read More

Platts Windows and Cash Settlements

May 19th, 2016 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Newly Added, oil

The “Platts window,” a metaphorical structure named after the influential provider of benchmark price assessments in various energy markets, consists of the final few minutes of trading, the period in the operation of an exchange when an aggressive player can have a big effect on the closing price.  A recentRead More

Proposed Reg AT: Comments Pile Up at the CFTC

Mar 22nd, 2016 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Energy, Newly Added, oil, Regulatory Environment, The A.I. Industry

The CFTC received a last-minute pile-up of comments on proposed rule 80 FR 78824, on automated trading. The commenters generally are not in a mood to pat the agency on its intangible back and congratulate it on a job well done. Quite the contrary. The notice of proposed rule-making (NPRM)Read More

Wrestling with the Bifurcation of Crude Oil Pricing

Mar 13th, 2016 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Newly Added, oil

Platts, the provider of physicals and futures markets prices affiliated with McGraw Hill Financial, says that it is going to launch a new price reference for Dated Brent CIF Rotterdam.  That’s not obviously a stop-the-presses moment, even for the oil markets, but it is worth a pause. The problem forRead More

Commodities: Catching a Falling Knife on the High Seas

Jan 5th, 2016 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Energy, Equity Hedge Funds, Hedge Funds, Newly Added, oil

The problem with a Star Bulk play or with analogous plays in the equity of dry bulk shippers is that the bottom of this bargain basement may not yet have been found. The problem behind the problem is China, which has fallen out of love with imported coal. Read More

The End of the Oil Major?

Oct 21st, 2015 | Filed under: Business News, Commodities: Examples, oil

The latest industry reports indicate that oil majors’ spending on exploration and development projects will drop by at least half, casting doubt over near-term future discoveries.Read More

Down Memory Lane: That WTI-Brent Divergence

Feb 18th, 2015 | Filed under: Commodities, Infrastructure, oil

For one professor, the surprising divergence in the prices of WTI/Brent crude in the period 2010-2012 was a case study in how commodity prices can teach us about supply chain conditions. Faille looks back at his article, and forward past today's calmer but still-fluctuating spread. Read More

Is Tunisia the New Hot Spot for Energy Investors?

Apr 11th, 2013 | Filed under: Energy, oil

James Stafford talks to John Nelson, CEO of Africa Hydrocarbons Inc. about what should be on the energy investors' watch list.Read More

What SandRidge May Herald for Challenge Slates

Mar 27th, 2013 | Filed under: Energy, oil

Litigation before the Delaware Chancery Court, Kallick v. SandRidge, led to an opinion issued March 8 that addresses when a board of directors must approve a particular dissident slate for the purpose of avoiding a so-called “poison put.”Read More

Oil Explorers Beware: Hackers Are Watching What You Know

Mar 13th, 2013 | Filed under: Energy, oil

Cyber risk management is critical new exploration territory for oil companies.Read More

Peak Oil Is Almost Here and There’s No Magic To Counter It: Interview with Dave Summers

Mar 11th, 2013 | Filed under: oil

Guest columnist James Stafford interview Dr. Dave Summers about peak oil. Read More