Browsing: The Global Economy & Currencies

The Global Economy & Currencies

The Crypto ‘Bubble’ as Seen From Boston College

Jul 5th, 2018 | Filed under: Digital currencies, Emerging Alternative Investments, Newly Added, Other Topics in A.I., The Global Economy & Currencies

Two scholars affiliated with Boston College, Carroll School of Management, have published a study of initial coin offerings (ICOs), that has given a mixed verdict on the common contention that cryptocurrencies in general and ICOs in particular constitute a “bubble” akin to, say, 17th century tulips or the mortgage derivativesRead More


The Efficiency of the Markets in Crypto-Currencies

Jun 28th, 2018 | Filed under: Currencies, Digital currencies, Emerging Alternative Investments, Finance & Economics, Financial Economics Theory, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

Three scholars affiliated with Johns Hopkins have evaluated cryptocurrency investing, in a new paper available at SSRN, and have concluded that “near-term cryptocurrency markets are semi-strong form efficient.” That bit of finance theorist jargon means that all publicly available information gets discounted quickly into an asset’s price, so that neitherRead More


A Talk on the What and Whys of Cryptocurrencies

Jun 20th, 2018 | Filed under: Currencies, Digital currencies, Emerging Alternative Investments, Finance & Economics, Newly Added, Other Topics in A.I., The Global Economy & Currencies

The Battle of the Quants came to New York City on Wednesday, June 20, and the CAIA Association was one of its media sponsors. Much of the event involved cryptocurrencies, including an exchange between John D’Agostino (the global head of investor engagement at DMS Governance) and Nouriel Roubini, Chairman ofRead More


Africa Still Rising (but Patience May Be Required)

Jun 12th, 2018 | Filed under: Emerging Alternative Investments, Emerging markets, High-net-worth investors, Newly Added, Other Topics in A.I., Private Equity, Private Investments, The Global Economy & Currencies

The Emerging Markets Private Equity Association, in a new report, suggests that the “Africa Rising” narrative of a few years ago is behind us. Africa is seen still as having enormous potential. But the report also says, “the commodity downturn of the last several years has had a severe impactRead More


Eurekahedge on Japan as an Investment Mandate

May 24th, 2018 | Filed under: Allocating to A.I., Institutional Asset Management, Institutional Investing, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

Eurekahedge has recently concluded its fifth annual survey of asset managers with mandates to invest in Japan. In the words of Eurekahedge chairman and CEO, Satoshi Iwanaga: “Survey results for 2018 suggest that central bank normalization is still a long way off in Japan, with investors continuing to reduce theirRead More


Bitcoin Futures ETFs: SEC Requests Comment

Apr 8th, 2018 | Filed under: Currencies, Digital currencies, Emerging Alternative Investments, Finance & Economics, Financial Economics Theory, Newly Added, Other Topics in A.I., The Global Economy & Currencies

In December last year the NYSE Arca Inc. filed a proposed rule change that would allow for the creation of Exchange Traded Funds investing in Bitcoin futures contracts, and, potentially, in other related Financial Instruments. In January 2018 the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission extended its review of this proposal.Read More


Reducing Dependence on (L)IBOR

Mar 15th, 2018 | Filed under: Finance & Economics, Newly Added, Risk Management & Operations, Risk Metrics and Measurement, The Global Economy & Currencies

A creation of the mid-1980s, the London Interbank Offered rate (LIBOR) became immensely influential over the three decades that followed. It became a reference rate for both finance and commerce for the rate of nearly risk-free interest, and in the process it spawned other IBORs, including EURIBOR and Japan’s TIBOR.Read More


PE and VC Opportunities in 21st Century India

Feb 13th, 2018 | Filed under: Currencies, Equity Types of Private Equity, Finance & Economics, Newly Added, Private Equity, Private Investments, The Global Economy & Currencies, Venture capital

ARA Law, a firm based in Mumbai and Bangalore, India, has issued a paper on private equity and venture capital in that country. In a foreword, firm founder Rajesh N. Begur observes that there is a positive dynamic now at work in India’s economy, one that in his view “canRead More


What CTAs Think about Bitcoin Futures

Jan 25th, 2018 | Filed under: Commodities, CTA, Currencies, Digital currencies, Emerging Alternative Investments, Finance & Economics, Macro and Managed Futures Funds, Newly Added, Other Topics in A.I., The Global Economy & Currencies

A new BarclayHedge study indicates that the majority of commodity trading advisers surveyed are unenthusiastic about the new Bitcoin futures. Specifically, asked “do you consider Bitcoin futures to be a valuable/useful addition to a diversified futures portfolio?” nearly three quarters (73%) said “no.” The sample for this survey included firmsRead More


Aquila Asks: Who’s Afraid of Pricey Markets?

Jan 18th, 2018 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Finance & Economics, Gold, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

A new paper from Aquila Capital Group looks at managed futures, and makes the case that they offer investments tools with which one can achieve a “robust and diversifying risk/return profile.” The paper begins with the concerns many investors have at present. Record long bull markets, high asset prices, andRead More


CRYPTOCURRENCIES – HOT BUY OR HOT AIR?

Jan 17th, 2018 | Filed under: Currencies, Digital currencies, Emerging Alternative Investments, Newly Added, Other Topics in A.I., The Global Economy & Currencies

By Diane Harrison With traditional stock markets offering robust gains in 2017 and looking poised to continue their attractiveness in 2018, investors need strong persuasion to shift their equity allocations elsewhere. Enter the latest media darling: cryptocurrencies. The alternatives news feeds are awash in stories extolling the meteoric rise ofRead More


Deloitte on Initial Coins Offerings (ICOs) as IPOs

Dec 10th, 2017 | Filed under: Currencies, Digital currencies, Emerging Alternative Investments, Newly Added, Other Issues in Private Investments, Other Topics in A.I., Private Investments, The Global Economy & Currencies

An October 2017 white paper from Deloitte discusses the extent to which the offerings of tokens built upon blockchains have become the new IPOs of the crypto era. There are no binding rules about how to execute an initial coin offering (ICO). Nonetheless, there have been enough of these soRead More


Regulatory Challenges Posed by Crypto Funds

Dec 5th, 2017 | Filed under: Commodities, Currencies, Digital currencies, Emerging Alternative Investments, Finance & Economics, Hedge Funds, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

A forthcoming paper in the Stanford Journal of Law, Business, and Finance looks at the cryptocurrency markets (bitcoin and its kin), the hedge funds that look to make money from them and the operational issues involved. Two independent scholars collaborated on writing the paper: Edmund Mokhtarian and Alexander Lindgren. AlthoughRead More


Artificial Intelligence and Productivity: NBER Takes a Look

Nov 21st, 2017 | Filed under: Business News, Finance & Economics, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

A new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, in Cambridge, Mass., discusses what its authors see as a paradox: although artificial intelligence has made astonishing advances in the last 20 years, taking along with it related technologies and stock prices, real income has stagnated, and productivity seemsRead More


China and a Reduced Form Bayesian VAR

Oct 29th, 2017 | Filed under: Commodities, Finance & Economics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

What the heck does the forbidding phrase “reduced form Bayesian VAR” mean? Let’s break this down. The VAR in question isn’t VaR (Value at Risk). It’s Vector Autoregression. This is a stochastic process model employed to understand the linear dependences among multiple time series. Each variable in a VAR hasRead More


BIS Numbers and the Market for Forex NDFs

Jun 1st, 2017 | Filed under: Algorithmic and high-frequency trading, Business News, Finance & Economics, Forex, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

A little over a year ago, the Bank for International Settlements announced its 11th Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Over the Counter Derivatives Market Activity. In recent days, Pragma Securities has referenced those BIS numbers in explaining the market for its latest service, an expansion of PragmaRead More


The Cryptocurrency Ecosystem: A New Benchmark Study

May 16th, 2017 | Filed under: Currencies, Digital currencies, Emerging Alternative Investments, Finance & Economics, Newly Added, Other Topics in A.I., The Global Economy & Currencies

It is clear by now to even the most hardened skeptic that cryptocurrency, the class of assets of which bitcoin is the paradigm, is much more than a passing fad. Yes, the field may once have been too closely associated with survivalists, cranks, and bit players in the story ofRead More


The Case for Bargain Hunting in South Africa

Apr 18th, 2017 | Filed under: Currencies, Emerging markets, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

Charles Roth, of Thornburg Investment Management, has made the case that markets have over-reacted to the recent political shake-up in South Africa, driving asset prices below their underlying value. Thus (although Roth doesn’t put the point quite this bluntly) this could be a time for some bargain hunting.  Finance MinistryRead More


Nation-States and Block-Chains: Vying for the Cutting Edge

Mar 21st, 2017 | Filed under: Currencies, Forex, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

Deloitte proposes that the Swiss Confederation has a key role to play in the continued development of blockchain. In a new whitepaper, Deloitte makes this case based on Switzerland’s “special position as a global innovation centre.” There are six sides to Switzerland’s position: its FinTech infrastructure; its start-up attractiveness; itsRead More


Looking at a Continent: Stress-Testing Banks and Insurers

Mar 14th, 2017 | Filed under: Economics, Finance & Economics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

The European Central Bank’s financial stability review, published in November 2016, predicts “steady, but modest, euro area economic recovery, despite continued headwinds.” The review is designed to assist Europe’s policy making authorities by providing information about the bank’s microprudential and macroprudential roles, along with the risks and vulnerabilities of theRead More


On the Bitcoin Blockchain: Looking Under the Hood

Jan 19th, 2017 | Filed under: Algorithmic and high-frequency trading, Business News, Currencies, Digital currencies, Emerging Alternative Investments, Finance & Economics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

More than a year ago, the Capco Institute Journal of Financial Transformation (Journal) ran a “critical assessment,” by Robert Sams, of bitcoin blockchains as a means of distributed clearing. With both bitcoins and blockchains newly in the news, Sams’ informed assessment is worth another look. Two years ago, Nasdaq announcedRead More


The Federal Reserve on Distributed Ledger Technology (that is, on Blockchains)

Jan 5th, 2017 | Filed under: Finance & Economics, Newly Added, Operations, Risk Management & Operations, The Global Economy & Currencies

A large team of officers and staff affiliated with the Federal Reserve (eight with the Board in DC, five with the FR Bank of New York, one with the FRB of Chicago) have collaborated on a new paper on distributed ledger technology in payments, clearing, and settlement. Of necessity, givenRead More


Natixis asks 500 institutional investors to look into the future

Dec 20th, 2016 | Filed under: Allocating to A.I., Emerging markets, Finance & Economics, High-net-worth investors, Institutional Asset Management, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

Natixis Global Asset Management has released the results of a survey of 500 institutional investors, asking them their views on prospects for 2017. The surveyed institutions expect that political and economic developments could cause an increase in volatility in the year to come, and active managers have to reset theirRead More


Private Equity Placements in China

Dec 8th, 2016 | Filed under: Allocating to A.I., Benchmarking & Performance Attribution, Currencies, Emerging markets, Newly Added, Private Equity, Private Investments, The Global Economy & Currencies

A new paper by G. Nathan Dong and two other scholars investigates private equity placements in China and their consequences for the issuing firms. The study works from a natural experiment that resulted from regulations created by the PRC ten years ago. In 2006, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issuedRead More


Aftermath of 2008: Reactions to Decreased Liquidity

Nov 20th, 2016 | Filed under: Finance & Economics, Liquid Alternative Investiments, Liquid Alts, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, Other Topics in A.I., Regulatory Environment, The A.I. Industry, The Global Economy & Currencies

A new report from State Street Corporation and the Alternative Investment Management Association says that nearly half of the market participants surveyed believe that decreased market liquidity is a secular change, not a cyclical one: that is, that it is a climate that is here to stay, not a rainRead More


Massad: Where the U.S. and the World Stand on Margins & Cap Requirements

Oct 27th, 2016 | Filed under: Commodities, Finance & Economics, Forex, Investing in Commodities, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

The chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Timothy Massad, addressed the Outlook Conference of the Managed Funds Association on October 21, and spoke about the global implementation of uncleared margin rules, which he called a critical component of “the new regulatory framework for swaps trading that the leaders ofRead More


Venezuela: Thinking of Cromwell and Crude

Oct 13th, 2016 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Emerging markets, Finance & Economics, Newly Added, oil, The Global Economy & Currencies

Hedge funds, among them some of those the unsympathetic call “vultures,” bought into the bonds of the Petróleo de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) early this year. PDVSA is Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, the consequence of nationalization forty years ago. Its fate turns on (a) the vagaries of post-Chavez politics in thatRead More


Papaconstantinou on ‘Selling the Family Silver’  

Oct 2nd, 2016 | Filed under: Business News, Currencies, Insolvency, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

A former finance minister of the Republic of Greece has published a book, Game Over, on what it is like to be in the midst of a continent-wide political and financial crisis. This is a volume that might be read with attention by those who seek alpha from distressed sovereignRead More


ESMA’s Greybeards Ponder Blockchains

Sep 11th, 2016 | Filed under: Algorithmic and high-frequency trading, Business News, Currencies, Digital currencies, Emerging Alternative Investments, Finance & Economics, Newly Added, Other Topics in A.I., The Global Economy & Currencies

There has been a flurry in recent days of activity about blockchains among the graybeards of the financial world, those who ponder the Really Big Picture and who have the ear of important regulators. Let us start from the beginning. What is a blockchain? It is a chronological, virtual, andRead More


The Next Crisis: BIS Warns of ‘Financial Vulnerabilities’ in EME/NFCs

Aug 25th, 2016 | Filed under: Currencies, Emerging markets, Finance & Economics, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

In a recent paper submitted to the G20’s working group on international financial architecture, scholars with the Bank for International Settlements have warned that an accumulation of debt in the years since the global financial crisis has left the emerging market economics (EMEs) vulnerable to capital outflows. The authors ofRead More


NB: China Positions the Yuan for Global Reserve Currency Status

Aug 9th, 2016 | Filed under: Currencies, Forex, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

Neuberger Berman, the asset management business spun off from Lehman in late 2008, has produced a new report on foreign access to China’s bond market. China has until now kept its bond market tightly fenced off from the rest of the world, which offers a marked contrast with the behaviorRead More


Stocks after Shocks: Equity Returns in the Face of Monetary Policy

Jul 31st, 2016 | Filed under: Economics, Finance & Economics, Financial Economics Theory, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

A new paper by two economists affiliated with the Federal Reserve System presents a new measure of the monetary policy exposure of individual stocks. The simplest approach to this task would be to regress individual stock returns around major central bank moves (“shocks”). But that turns out not to beRead More


Eurekahedge: Performance Down, Inflows Up in 1st Half 2016

Jul 28th, 2016 | Filed under: Equity Hedge Funds, Event-Driven Hedge Funds, Finance & Economics, Hedge Funds, Macro and Managed Futures Funds, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

The latest report from Eurekahedge indicates that hedge funds’ assets under management are up by $19.9 billion in the first half of 2016 worldwide. Eurekahedge, which tracks the health of the hedge fund industry month by month, also says that total industry performance-based results were down, $5.2 billion, so moreRead More


Volatility Spillover Effects: India, Korea, China

Jul 21st, 2016 | Filed under: Commodities, Currencies, Finance & Economics, Investing in Commodities, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

Last year, two scholars writing in the Journal of Alternative Investments looked at the volatility spillover effects in the Chinese stock index futures and spot markets.  The question for them was whether there is spillover from spot markets into futures markets and back. I propose to give you their answer,Read More


Brexit and Hedge Fund Strategies

Jun 30th, 2016 | Filed under: Currencies, Equity Hedge Funds, Finance & Economics, Hedge Funds, Newly Added, Relative Value Hedge Funds, The Global Economy & Currencies

How well did hedge funds help their investors to hedge potential losses as a consequence of the markets’ immediate reaction to the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom? How well will they hedge the other uncertainties going forward? Thursday, June 23, the UK voted to leave the European Union. TheRead More


Giving the Baron King of Lothbury his Due

Jun 7th, 2016 | Filed under: Business News, Finance & Economics, Insolvency, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

The Bank of England is not only the central bank of the United Kingdom, in continuous operation since 1694; it is the model upon which central banking worldwide has been created. The Mother Central Bank is what it is. Mervyn King, the chief economist of the Bank of England throughRead More


Global Focus Capital: Market’s Inflationary Expectations Are Too Low

May 12th, 2016 | Filed under: Allocating to A.I., Benchmarking & Performance Attribution, Commodities, Currencies, Finance & Economics, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

Investors can get ahead of events by aligning their portfolios to “a world of lower expected capital market returns and higher forward volatility.” That, at any rate, is the upshot of a thoughtful analysis by Eric J. Wiegel of Global Focus Capital, a Boston based asset allocation advisor. Why doesRead More


Escape to the Internet? Or Build Better Communities?

May 8th, 2016 | Filed under: Currencies, Digital currencies, Newly Added, Operations, Other Topics in A.I., Risk Management & Operations, Technology, The Global Economy & Currencies

Dissatisfaction with the fiat money issued by or on signals from central bankers will not go away. Talk of “printing press” money seems quaint, as when people of my generation still refer to a keyboard as a “typewriter.” Central banks and their servants (and their servers) around the world engage,Read More


Greek Debt: Back in the Headlines

Apr 4th, 2016 | Filed under: Business News, Finance & Economics, Insolvency, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

The issue of Greece’s insolvency had receded a bit from the headlines since the stormy days of last summer. Alpha-savvy readers will surely recall, though, that in July 2015, the Greek government and its European creditors reached a bailout agreement that required actions by the former, especially on pensions andRead More


Where We Stand With Blockchains: Bet on the Disruption

Mar 29th, 2016 | Filed under: Currencies, Digital currencies, Emerging Alternative Investments, Finance & Economics, Newly Added, Other Topics in A.I., The Global Economy & Currencies

Chris Skinner has a new book out, ValueWeb, which describes in the words of its lengthy subtitle “how FinTech Firms are Using Bitcoin Blockchain and Mobile Technologies to Create the Internet of Value.” It may appear to a cynic that Skinner is simply entering the already crowded sweepstakes for “whoRead More


The ECB’s March Announcements:   Some Facts and Some Philosophy

Mar 27th, 2016 | Filed under: Currencies, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

On March 10, the European Central Bank announced an eagerly awaited new round of stimulus measures. This fell flat, and it has left some people wondering whether the bazookas of the central banks have become pop guns. As Andrew Bosomworth put it, in PIMCO’s blog, the ECB ”ticked all theRead More


Cross-Border Insolvencies: Defection Isn’t the Only Problem

Mar 17th, 2016 | Filed under: Business News, Economics, Finance & Economics, Newly Added

A recent paper by Andrew Dawson, a law professor of the University of Miami, looks at the current cross-border insolvency framework from the point of view of the cultural differences that may be expressing themselves through the distinct systems on the opposite sides of many an international border.  His discussionRead More


FCStone Financial on Grains and Volatility

Mar 10th, 2016 | Filed under: Commodities, Commodities, Commodities: Examples, Finance & Economics, Forex, Investing in Commodities, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

A new white paper written by Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for INTL FCStone Financial, discusses the consequence of the strong dollar of the last two years on the volatility of grain prices, focusing especially on corn. Before this period, there was the global financial crisis, and the “quantitative easing”Read More


Latest News on Argentina and the Pari Passu Clause

Feb 25th, 2016 | Filed under: Business News, Emerging markets, Finance & Economics, Insolvency, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

The Hon. Thomas Griesa, of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, has issued an “indicative ruling” in response to a motion by the Republic of Argentina.Read More


Carry Strategies: Beyond Foreign Exchange

Feb 21st, 2016 | Filed under: Commodities, CTA, Currencies, Forex, Hedge Funds, Macro and Managed Futures Funds, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

International investors borrow money in countries where interest rates are relatively low, and then lend it out in countries where the rates are higher. All they do is “carry” the money, so to speak, from one country to the other.Read More


The Bonds of War: Ukraine, Russia, the IMF

Feb 11th, 2016 | Filed under: Business News, Finance & Economics, Frontier markets, Insolvency, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

Argentines take heart. Yes, you have implacable holdout bondholder NML Capital to contend with, and NML has been beating you in court battles arising from your 2001 bond defaults. But … Paul Singer isn’t Vladimir Putin, and NML isn’t Mother Russia. Your courtroom battles aren’t actual battlefield battles. The defaultRead More


CFDs and Their Platforms in Germany

Jan 20th, 2016 | Filed under: Currencies, Forex, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

FXCM, an online provider of foreign exchange trading related services, announced January 6 that it has entered into a partnership with a German broker, FXFlat, as part of its strategic expansion into the German market. The immediate consequence of the partnership is that FXFlat’s customers can access the FXCM TradingRead More


Nasdaq Puts Its Forex Plans on Hold

Jan 18th, 2016 | Filed under: Currencies, Finance & Economics, Forex, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

There is an ancient principle of prudence, “don’t fix what isn’t broken.” Thomas Jefferson alludes to it in the Declaration of Independence. Prudence dictates that institutions “long established” are not abandoned for “light and transient causes.” It is possible that many of those who trade currencies today believe that theRead More


Emerging Markets in 2016: Making Necessary Distinctions

Jan 3rd, 2016 | Filed under: Currencies, Emerging markets, Finance & Economics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

The present depressed state of commodity prices spells continued trouble for those companies that export said commodities, but also spells opportunity for those that import and make use of them. Some thoughts from Neuberger Berman, with an addendum from BlackRock. Read More


Bitcoin’s Founder: Recent History and 2020 Vision

Dec 17th, 2015 | Filed under: Currencies, Digital currencies, Emerging Alternative Investments, Entrepreneurs, Finance & Economics, Newly Added, Personalities in AI, The Global Economy & Currencies

Two things happened almost at once recently: Wired told us who actually invented bitcoin, (well, it gave the world the latest hot theory), and officials in Australia raided that same fellow’s home in re a tax investigation. More specifically on the first of those points, Wired (and soon thereafter Gizmodo)Read More