Browsing: Macroeconomics


The Trinity Of Errors In Financial Models: An Introductory Analysis

Oct 24th, 2018 | Filed under: Finance & Economics, Financial Economics Theory, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, The A.I. Industry

By Deepak Kanungo, Founder and CEO of Hedged Capital LLC In this introductory article, we explore three types of errors inherent in all financial models. We examine these errors using a simple probabilistic model that can be used for predicting the federal funds rate, an interest rate of seminal importanceRead More

Modi Operandi

Oct 1st, 2018 | Filed under: Emerging markets, Frontier markets, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, The A.I. Industry, The Global Economy & Currencies, What about beta?

By Bill Kelly, CEO, CAIA Association What’s your liquidity M.O.? If you are less than certain, it is time to look east toward the country of India and the land of Modi. After all, when 1.3 billion people cough there is a decent chance the rest of the world justRead More

10 Years Later: Glasner Looks Back at the GFC

Sep 20th, 2018 | Filed under: Equity Hedge Funds, Finance & Economics, Hedge Funds, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, The A.I. Industry, The Global Economy & Currencies

David Glasner, an economist with the Federal Trade Commission, in a new Mercatus Research Paper, offers what he calls a “deeper explanation of the financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent recovery.” Deeper than what? Deeper than attributing the bust to the bursting of the housing price bubble. Glasner’s newRead More

Liquidity: The Taxi-onomy of Supply and Demand 

Aug 13th, 2018 | Filed under: Macroeconomics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies, What about beta?

By Bill Kelly, CEO, CAIA Association The CAIA Association has partnered with AIMA to develop a series of educational papers designed to equip trustees and other fiduciaries with the proper tools to assist them in their risk oversight responsibilities. The third installment covered the use and deployment of leverage in alternative funds and we are now putting theRead More

The Structure of the Securities Lending Market

Aug 2nd, 2018 | Filed under: Behavioral finance, Finance & Economics, Financial Economics Theory, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

An author affiliated with the National University of Singapore and one with Goethe University Frankfurt, Germany, have co-authored a paper on the structure of the securities lending market: specifically, on the fact that this market is an oligopoly, and on the implications that has for pricing. The general outlines areRead More

Active Management, the Business Cycle, and the Silk Road

Jul 31st, 2018 | Filed under: Allocating to A.I., Alpha & Beta, Finance & Economics, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, Other Topics in A.I., Retail Investing, The Global Economy & Currencies

LPL Financial’s 2018 Forum Conference for investors took place in Boston this week, Sunday through Tuesday. This is an annual event that brings together thousands of advisors and program managers to discuss industry issues and new products. LPL is an independent broker-dealer headquartered in Boston, with offices in Fort Mill,Read More

Eurekahedge on Japan as an Investment Mandate

May 24th, 2018 | Filed under: Allocating to A.I., Institutional Asset Management, Institutional Investing, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

Eurekahedge has recently concluded its fifth annual survey of asset managers with mandates to invest in Japan. In the words of Eurekahedge chairman and CEO, Satoshi Iwanaga: “Survey results for 2018 suggest that central bank normalization is still a long way off in Japan, with investors continuing to reduce theirRead More

Artificial Intelligence and Productivity: NBER Takes a Look

Nov 21st, 2017 | Filed under: Business News, Finance & Economics, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

A new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, in Cambridge, Mass., discusses what its authors see as a paradox: although artificial intelligence has made astonishing advances in the last 20 years, taking along with it related technologies and stock prices, real income has stagnated, and productivity seemsRead More

Aftermath of 2008: Reactions to Decreased Liquidity

Nov 20th, 2016 | Filed under: Finance & Economics, Liquid Alternative Investiments, Liquid Alts, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, Other Topics in A.I., Regulatory Environment, The A.I. Industry, The Global Economy & Currencies

A new report from State Street Corporation and the Alternative Investment Management Association says that nearly half of the market participants surveyed believe that decreased market liquidity is a secular change, not a cyclical one: that is, that it is a climate that is here to stay, not a rainRead More

The Next Crisis: BIS Warns of ‘Financial Vulnerabilities’ in EME/NFCs

Aug 25th, 2016 | Filed under: Currencies, Emerging markets, Finance & Economics, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

In a recent paper submitted to the G20’s working group on international financial architecture, scholars with the Bank for International Settlements have warned that an accumulation of debt in the years since the global financial crisis has left the emerging market economics (EMEs) vulnerable to capital outflows. The authors ofRead More

Global Focus Capital: Market’s Inflationary Expectations Are Too Low

May 12th, 2016 | Filed under: Allocating to A.I., Benchmarking & Performance Attribution, Commodities, Currencies, Finance & Economics, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

Investors can get ahead of events by aligning their portfolios to “a world of lower expected capital market returns and higher forward volatility.” That, at any rate, is the upshot of a thoughtful analysis by Eric J. Wiegel of Global Focus Capital, a Boston based asset allocation advisor. Why doesRead More

The ECB’s March Announcements:   Some Facts and Some Philosophy

Mar 27th, 2016 | Filed under: Currencies, Macroeconomics, Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies

On March 10, the European Central Bank announced an eagerly awaited new round of stimulus measures. This fell flat, and it has left some people wondering whether the bazookas of the central banks have become pop guns. As Andrew Bosomworth put it, in PIMCO’s blog, the ECB ”ticked all theRead More

What Taper Tantrum?  And, Will Yellen Pull a Bernanke?

Aug 30th, 2015 | Filed under: Alpha Strategies, Hedge Fund Industry Trends, Indexes, Macroeconomics

The head of the New York Fed said on Wednesday, August 26th, that "the decision to begin the normalization process at the September FOMC meeting seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago." We may be about to see another Fed retreat, analogous to that of a little more than two years ago. Read More

Headline Factors and Hedge Fund Success

Jun 23rd, 2015 | Filed under: Indexes, Macroeconomics, Performance, Analytics & Metrics

European mandated hedge funds, benefitting from improved expectations regarding that region, are up 5.54% year to date, says Eurekahedge. Wait: improved expectations? Yes, notwithstanding continued Greek drama. Read More

House of Saud Retains Plenty of Clout

Jun 11th, 2015 | Filed under: Commodities, Macroeconomics

A measured view of the underlying reality of the world market in crude oil suggests that the price may have gone as low as the Saudis want it to go. For traders there may be little if any further gain on the downside. Read More

Banned in China: High Praise for a Statistics Textbook

May 13th, 2015 | Filed under: Currencies, Forex, Macroeconomics

At this moment, when news from China has turned sober and the monetary/fiscal authorities there seem torn by inconsistent goals, a tweet flutter has reminded us of a boring data-analysis text that was nixed by a publishing house in China for reasons of political sensitivity. Read More

Griffin, Bernanke, and the Saud family

Apr 27th, 2015 | Filed under: Alpha Hunters, Alpha Strategies, Currencies, Indexes, Macroeconomics

Why has Ken Griffin, the founder of Citadel, hired former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke as a Senior Advisor? This decision represents a surprise given Griffin's views on "quantitative easing," views he forcefully expressed a couple of years ago. Read More

Zulauf Sees Unprecedented Risks: Zhou Fears Deflation

Apr 7th, 2015 | Filed under: Currencies, Emerging markets, Macroeconomics

Felix Zulauf is the principal of Zulauf Asset Management, and a former global strategist for the UBS Group. He said that central banks have intervened on such a large scale of late that they have left "global financial markets ... more distorted than ever before and accordingly the risks are very high." Read More

Macroeconomics: The Mainstream and the … Banks

Feb 25th, 2015 | Filed under: Currencies, Macroeconomics

The trade cycle is not a central concern of the reigning general-equilibrium models in macroeconomics. To the extent such models do consider booms and busts, they largely reject money or credit based explanations. Read More

Meditations on the Eurozone and Secession

Feb 9th, 2015 | Filed under: Currencies, Macroeconomics

Is it possible for a country (let us not name names) currently employing the euro to introduce or re-introduce a fiat national currency with a variable exchange rate vis-à-vis the euro and without either a forced conversion of savings or catastrophe? Faille speculates on an approach. Read More

Swiss National Bank Abandons Its Commitment to Support the Euro

Jan 15th, 2015 | Filed under: Macroeconomics

John Brynjolfsson on Switzerland's slightly less than neutral stand on the Euro.Read More