Browsing: Macroeconomics

Macroeconomics

The Verdict Is In: It’s a Soft Landing for the Global Economy

Aug 1st, 2019 | Filed under: Newly Added, The A.I. Industry, Financial Economics Theory, The Global Economy & Currencies, Economics, Macroeconomics, Finance & Economics

Neuberger Berman has long pressed the investment thesis that the prolonged recovery from the depths of the Global Financial Crisis would end, when it ended, with a “soft landing.” There will be a slowing of growth, and with that an increase in volatility, but it need not involve a “hard”Read More


Trade Tensions, Tariffs and European Volatility

May 30th, 2019 | Filed under: Newly Added, Derivatives, The A.I. Industry, The Global Economy & Currencies, Business News, Economics, Macroeconomics, Finance & Economics

By Mark Shore As the discussions of trade wars and tariffs persisted throughout 2018 and into 2019, it may have influenced a sense of uncertainty in the global financial and commodity markets as companies might have to rethink their supply chains and manage potential disruptions and at least in theRead More


Hedge Funds and the EUR/CHF Trade

Apr 22nd, 2019 | Filed under: Newly Added, Hedge Fund Strategies, Currencies, The A.I. Industry, Equity Hedge Funds, Forex, Hedge Funds, Event-Driven Hedge Funds, The Global Economy & Currencies, Macroeconomics

Three scholars affiliated with JP Morgan Chase have written a paper on hedge fund behavior ahead of meetings of the Swiss National Bank, with the idea of shedding light on the consequences of the timing of central bank announcements more generally. They conclude that the SNB contributed to the volatilityRead More


Frame It- Painting A Picture Investors Want To See

Apr 1st, 2019 | Filed under: Newly Added, Hedge Funds, Alternative Investments in Context, Macroeconomics, Finance & Economics

By Diane Harrison Hedge fund investors and marketers seem glad to let go of 2018 and its disappointing finish, down 3.41%, a marked decline from 2017’s 11.99% gain. And yet, 2019 markets started the year with an upswing, reflecting the hope that springs eternal in capital raising. Alternatives managers willRead More


BLACK SWANS, MAJOR EVENTS & FACTOR RETURNS

Mar 24th, 2019 | Filed under: Newly Added, The A.I. Industry, Risk management, The Global Economy & Currencies, Economics, Risk Management Strategies & Processes, Macroeconomics, Finance & Economics

By Nicolas Rabener of FactorResearch INTRODUCTION Investors fear black swan events, although it can be argued that this fear is irrational. The black swan theory is a metaphor that describes a surprise event that has a major impact and is often rationalized with hindsight. A recent example would be theRead More


Can LIBOR Be Replaced?

Feb 12th, 2019 | Filed under: Newly Added, Derivatives, The A.I. Industry, Credit Derivatives, Economics, Macroeconomics, Structured Products, Finance & Economics

Given a long wave of scandals that lasted from 2008 until 2012, most of the derivatives industry, and most of its regulators, have agreed that the London Interbank Offered rate [Libor] ought to be replaced by a more tamper-resistant mechanism. Surely there must be an index that will measure theRead More


Nick Pollard: The View from Mumbai

Jan 21st, 2019 | Filed under: Newly Added, The A.I. Industry, Hedge Funds, The Global Economy & Currencies, Emerging markets, Economics, Macroeconomics

On Jan. 11,  the CFA Society India hosted the 9th Annual India Investment Conference in Mumbai. CAIA was a platinum sponsor of this event.  The theme of this year’s IIC was “investing insights for uncertain times.” Nick Pollard, Managing Director, Asia Pacific at CFA Institute, kicked things off with aRead More


CORPORATE DEBT IN THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET

Jan 17th, 2019 | Filed under: Newly Added, The A.I. Industry, The Global Economy & Currencies, Economics, Frontier markets, Macroeconomics, Finance & Economics

By Nicolas Rabener, CAIA, Factor Research Summary: China exhibits the world’s highest corporate debt as % of GDP However, Chinese stocks are not significantly more levered than U.S. stocks Asset and debt growth has stalled in 2018, likely indicating an economic slowdown INTRODUCTION The McKinsey Global Institute published an influentialRead More


How Bayesians Solve the Markowitz Problem

Jan 13th, 2019 | Filed under: Newly Added, CAPM / Alpha Theory, Financial Economics Theory, Behavioral finance, The Global Economy & Currencies, Macroeconomics, Finance & Economics

Understanding of the “Markowitz problem” has changed in the 60+ years since Harry Markowitz’ publication of an article in the Journal of Finance that outlined the basics of modern portfolio theory. The problem is that portfolio theory requires an investor to estimate risk, return, and correlation from market data, meaningRead More


‘Great Moderation?’ Forget about it, says new Fed working paper

Jan 10th, 2019 | Filed under: Newly Added, The A.I. Industry, Financial Economics Theory, The Global Economy & Currencies, Economics, Macroeconomics, Finance & Economics

A new working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago looks at the real risk-free interest rate over the last 30 years, where it has been trending, and why that trend hasn’t had the consequences one might intuitively have predicted. The paper, Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends, is the workRead More


The Wright Stuff

Dec 17th, 2018 | Filed under: Newly Added, What about beta?, The Global Economy & Currencies, Alternative Investments in Context, Economics, Macroeconomics, Allocating to A.I., Finance & Economics

By Bill Kelly, CEO, CAIA Association One hundred and fifteen years ago today two Wrights tried to make it right when it came time to ponder the prospect of flying the friendly skies. On that day in an open field in a place called Kill Devil Hills, the first recorded airplane flight took off and safelyRead More


FACTOR INVESTING MADE IN CHINA Harvesting Factor Returns in the Middle Kingdom

Dec 13th, 2018 | Filed under: Newly Added, The A.I. Industry, The Global Economy & Currencies, Economics, Macroeconomics, Finance & Economics

By Nicolas Rabener, CAIA, Factor Research Summary: Common equity factors generated attractive risk-adjusted returns in the Chinese stock market Factor performance in China often mirrors global factor performance Indicates common factor drivers that permeate even emerging and isolated markets INTRODUCTION Economic news like changes in GDP growth are frequently usedRead More


A Move from Otherness to Better Global Governance 

Dec 10th, 2018 | Filed under: Newly Added, What about beta?, The Global Economy & Currencies, Economics, Macroeconomics

By Bill Kelly, CEO, CAIA Association The resolution season will soon be upon us. Many will aspire to eat less, exercise more, be better partners or parents, or maybe even sit for the March 2019 CAIA Exam. Resolve doesn’t always make it across the finish line though, even with the very best ofRead More


Jeff Diehl: The View from SuperReturn Japan, Part I

Dec 4th, 2018 | Filed under: Newly Added, Private Equity, The A.I. Industry, Debt Types of Private Equity, Venture capital, Equity Types of Private Equity, The Global Economy & Currencies, Other Issues in Private Investments, Economics, Private Investments, Frontier markets, Macroeconomics, Finance & Economics

On Wednesday, December 5, in Tokyo, Japan, the SuperReturn Japan 2018 event convenes. CAIA is a sponsor of this event. Jeff Diehl, managing partner at Adams Street Partners, a multi-national investment manager with more than $35 billion in assets under management, is attending. He will participate in a panel WednesdayRead More


The Trinity Of Errors In Financial Models: An Introductory Analysis

Oct 24th, 2018 | Filed under: Newly Added, The A.I. Industry, Financial Economics Theory, Macroeconomics, Finance & Economics

By Deepak Kanungo, Founder and CEO of Hedged Capital LLC In this introductory article, we explore three types of errors inherent in all financial models. We examine these errors using a simple probabilistic model that can be used for predicting the federal funds rate, an interest rate of seminal importanceRead More


Modi Operandi

Oct 1st, 2018 | Filed under: Newly Added, What about beta?, The A.I. Industry, The Global Economy & Currencies, Emerging markets, Frontier markets, Macroeconomics

By Bill Kelly, CEO, CAIA Association What’s your liquidity M.O.? If you are less than certain, it is time to look east toward the country of India and the land of Modi. After all, when 1.3 billion people cough there is a decent chance the rest of the world justRead More


10 Years Later: Glasner Looks Back at the GFC

Sep 20th, 2018 | Filed under: Newly Added, The A.I. Industry, Equity Hedge Funds, Hedge Funds, The Global Economy & Currencies, Macroeconomics, Finance & Economics

David Glasner, an economist with the Federal Trade Commission, in a new Mercatus Research Paper, offers what he calls a “deeper explanation of the financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent recovery.” Deeper than what? Deeper than attributing the bust to the bursting of the housing price bubble. Glasner’s newRead More


Liquidity: The Taxi-onomy of Supply and Demand 

Aug 13th, 2018 | Filed under: Newly Added, What about beta?, The Global Economy & Currencies, Macroeconomics

By Bill Kelly, CEO, CAIA Association The CAIA Association has partnered with AIMA to develop a series of educational papers designed to equip trustees and other fiduciaries with the proper tools to assist them in their risk oversight responsibilities. The third installment covered the use and deployment of leverage in alternative funds and we are now putting theRead More


The Structure of the Securities Lending Market

Aug 2nd, 2018 | Filed under: Newly Added, Financial Economics Theory, Behavioral finance, The Global Economy & Currencies, Macroeconomics, Finance & Economics

An author affiliated with the National University of Singapore and one with Goethe University Frankfurt, Germany, have co-authored a paper on the structure of the securities lending market: specifically, on the fact that this market is an oligopoly, and on the implications that has for pricing. The general outlines areRead More


Active Management, the Business Cycle, and the Silk Road

Jul 31st, 2018 | Filed under: Newly Added, Retail Investing, Alpha & Beta, The Global Economy & Currencies, Macroeconomics, Allocating to A.I., Finance & Economics, Other Topics in A.I.

LPL Financial’s 2018 Forum Conference for investors took place in Boston this week, Sunday through Tuesday. This is an annual event that brings together thousands of advisors and program managers to discuss industry issues and new products. LPL is an independent broker-dealer headquartered in Boston, with offices in Fort Mill,Read More


Eurekahedge on Japan as an Investment Mandate

May 24th, 2018 | Filed under: Newly Added, Institutional Investing, The Global Economy & Currencies, Institutional Asset Management, Macroeconomics, Allocating to A.I.

Eurekahedge has recently concluded its fifth annual survey of asset managers with mandates to invest in Japan. In the words of Eurekahedge chairman and CEO, Satoshi Iwanaga: “Survey results for 2018 suggest that central bank normalization is still a long way off in Japan, with investors continuing to reduce theirRead More


Artificial Intelligence and Productivity: NBER Takes a Look

Nov 21st, 2017 | Filed under: Newly Added, The Global Economy & Currencies, Business News, Macroeconomics, Finance & Economics

A new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, in Cambridge, Mass., discusses what its authors see as a paradox: although artificial intelligence has made astonishing advances in the last 20 years, taking along with it related technologies and stock prices, real income has stagnated, and productivity seemsRead More


Aftermath of 2008: Reactions to Decreased Liquidity

Nov 20th, 2016 | Filed under: Newly Added, The A.I. Industry, Liquid Alternative Investiments, Regulatory Environment, The Global Economy & Currencies, Liquid Alts, Macroeconomics, Finance & Economics, Other Topics in A.I.

A new report from State Street Corporation and the Alternative Investment Management Association says that nearly half of the market participants surveyed believe that decreased market liquidity is a secular change, not a cyclical one: that is, that it is a climate that is here to stay, not a rainRead More


The Next Crisis: BIS Warns of ‘Financial Vulnerabilities’ in EME/NFCs

Aug 25th, 2016 | Filed under: Newly Added, Currencies, The Global Economy & Currencies, Emerging markets, Macroeconomics, Finance & Economics

In a recent paper submitted to the G20’s working group on international financial architecture, scholars with the Bank for International Settlements have warned that an accumulation of debt in the years since the global financial crisis has left the emerging market economics (EMEs) vulnerable to capital outflows. The authors ofRead More


Global Focus Capital: Market’s Inflationary Expectations Are Too Low

May 12th, 2016 | Filed under: Newly Added, Currencies, Benchmarking & Performance Attribution, The Global Economy & Currencies, Commodities, Macroeconomics, Allocating to A.I., Finance & Economics

Investors can get ahead of events by aligning their portfolios to “a world of lower expected capital market returns and higher forward volatility.” That, at any rate, is the upshot of a thoughtful analysis by Eric J. Wiegel of Global Focus Capital, a Boston based asset allocation advisor. Why doesRead More


The ECB’s March Announcements:   Some Facts and Some Philosophy

Mar 27th, 2016 | Filed under: Newly Added, Currencies, The Global Economy & Currencies, Macroeconomics

On March 10, the European Central Bank announced an eagerly awaited new round of stimulus measures. This fell flat, and it has left some people wondering whether the bazookas of the central banks have become pop guns. As Andrew Bosomworth put it, in PIMCO’s blog, the ECB ”ticked all theRead More


What Taper Tantrum?  And, Will Yellen Pull a Bernanke?

Aug 30th, 2015 | Filed under: Hedge Fund Industry Trends, Alpha Strategies, Indexes, Macroeconomics

The head of the New York Fed said on Wednesday, August 26th, that "the decision to begin the normalization process at the September FOMC meeting seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago." We may be about to see another Fed retreat, analogous to that of a little more than two years ago. Read More


Headline Factors and Hedge Fund Success

Jun 23rd, 2015 | Filed under: Performance, Analytics & Metrics, Indexes, Macroeconomics

European mandated hedge funds, benefitting from improved expectations regarding that region, are up 5.54% year to date, says Eurekahedge. Wait: improved expectations? Yes, notwithstanding continued Greek drama. Read More


House of Saud Retains Plenty of Clout

Jun 11th, 2015 | Filed under: Commodities, Macroeconomics

A measured view of the underlying reality of the world market in crude oil suggests that the price may have gone as low as the Saudis want it to go. For traders there may be little if any further gain on the downside. Read More


Banned in China: High Praise for a Statistics Textbook

May 13th, 2015 | Filed under: Currencies, Forex, Macroeconomics

At this moment, when news from China has turned sober and the monetary/fiscal authorities there seem torn by inconsistent goals, a tweet flutter has reminded us of a boring data-analysis text that was nixed by a publishing house in China for reasons of political sensitivity. Read More


Griffin, Bernanke, and the Saud family

Apr 27th, 2015 | Filed under: Currencies, Alpha Hunters, Alpha Strategies, Indexes, Macroeconomics

Why has Ken Griffin, the founder of Citadel, hired former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke as a Senior Advisor? This decision represents a surprise given Griffin's views on "quantitative easing," views he forcefully expressed a couple of years ago. Read More


Zulauf Sees Unprecedented Risks: Zhou Fears Deflation

Apr 7th, 2015 | Filed under: Currencies, Emerging markets, Macroeconomics

Felix Zulauf is the principal of Zulauf Asset Management, and a former global strategist for the UBS Group. He said that central banks have intervened on such a large scale of late that they have left "global financial markets ... more distorted than ever before and accordingly the risks are very high." Read More


Macroeconomics: The Mainstream and the … Banks

Feb 25th, 2015 | Filed under: Currencies, Macroeconomics

The trade cycle is not a central concern of the reigning general-equilibrium models in macroeconomics. To the extent such models do consider booms and busts, they largely reject money or credit based explanations. Read More


Meditations on the Eurozone and Secession

Feb 9th, 2015 | Filed under: Currencies, Macroeconomics

Is it possible for a country (let us not name names) currently employing the euro to introduce or re-introduce a fiat national currency with a variable exchange rate vis-à-vis the euro and without either a forced conversion of savings or catastrophe? Faille speculates on an approach. Read More


Swiss National Bank Abandons Its Commitment to Support the Euro

Jan 15th, 2015 | Filed under: Macroeconomics

John Brynjolfsson on Switzerland's slightly less than neutral stand on the Euro.Read More